Football; Germany v Greece – A game of life and death

Today Germany is scheduled to kick Greece out of the Euro. Euro 2012 that is, in a clear case of football imitating life?

The Great Synagogue Danzig - demolished by the Germans in 1939

And this match too takes place in the historic Hanseatic Free City of Danzig (Gdansk) where World War II began when the German forces attacked the Polish Post Office on September 1, 1939.

Danzig (Gdansk) Post Office

The Free City was created on 15 November 1920 and included the city of Danzig and over two hundred nearby towns, villages, and settlements. In 1933, the City's government was taken over by the local Nazi Party and the democratic opposition was suppressed. After the German invasion of Poland in 1939, the Free City was abolished and incorporated into the newly formed Reichsgau of Danzig-West Prussia. Widespread anti-Semitic and anti-Polish discrimination and organised murder followed.

The defenders of the Polish Post Office in Danzig being led away
- they were later executed by the Germans

38 of the defenders of the Post Office, mainly Polish postal workers who had military training, who survived the battle were executed by firing squad as "illegal combatants" (sounds familiar?). The two German commanders responsible for this, the first War Crime of WW11 were never punished, were conveniently  "de-Nazified" by the American occupying forces after WW11 and went on to have careers as lawyers in West Germany before dying of natural causes in the 70's.

The Axis occupation of Greece during World War II began in April 1941 after the Nazi German and Fascist Italian invasion of Greece. Germany withdrew from mainland Greece in October 1944. German garrisons remained in control of Crete and other islands until May and June 1945. Increasing attacks by partisans in the latter years of the occupation resulted in a number of executions and wholesale slaughter of civilians in reprisal. In total, the Germans executed some 21,000 Greeks, the Bulgarians 40,000 and the Italians 9,000. After the war Greece and its economy were left destroyed and the country never recovered because of the bitter civil war which followed. Germany has never paid reparations to the Greek people for the suffering and damage it inflicted and for its many war crimes including the genocide of the Greek Jewish population and the massacres of the Italian garrisons on Cephalonia and Kos.

http://daithaic.blogspot.co.uk/2009/06/jewish-kos.html

The Greek Civil War was fought from 1946 to 1949 between the Greek government army - backed by Britain and the United States - and the Democratic Army of Greece (DSE), the military branch of the Greek Communist Party (KKE), backed by Bulgaria, Yugoslavia and Albania. It was the result of a highly polarised struggle between leftists and rightists that started in 1943 and targeted the power vacuum that the German-Italian occupation during World War II had created. One of the first conflicts of the Cold War, according to some analysts it represents the first example of post-war British and American interference in the internal politics of a foreign country.

The photo depicts a defining moment in modern Greek history, the beginning of the "Dekemvriana", at the moment Greek and British troops starting shooting unarmed Athenian demonstrators (c. 300.000); just 3 months after the Germans had retreated from the country, on 3 December 1944. This episode was the major cause of the 3-year Greek Civil War that followed some 1 and half years later.

The civil war left Greece with a vehemently anti-Communist security establishment, which would lead to the establishment of the Greek military junta of 1967–1974 and a legacy of political polarisation that lasted until the 1980s. Greece is probably the only country where those who fought so bravely against the Nazis were executed, exiled and criminalised after the war whilst those who collaborated went on to rule the country. 

A German Army photo of one of the many Greek resistance fighters
executed by the  collaborationist Security Brigades

Even to this day a Greek village, no matter how small will have two Kafeoin (bars) as those who fought on different sides in the civil war and their descendants will not drink together. With the restoration of Greek democracy in 1974 many Greeks  felt they were “owed” to redress the injustice of what went before, hence the woes of modern Greece shoehorned into a Eurozone of Germany’s making.

http://daithaic.blogspot.co.uk/2007/09/euro-opportunity-or-threat-for-britain.html

“Some people think football is a matter of life and death. I assure you, it's much more serious than that.”

Bill Shankly, Manager of Liverpool FC

A penny and a euro drops

 Bankocracy in action in Europe

Across Europe and the world the penny and the euro are dropping – people who pay taxes, own homes and need jobs where they sell their honest labour realise that the various bailouts of banks are just that – bail outs of the Banks and bankers, not of the economy, not of those who trusted the banks when they bought their homes and not of the Teachers, Nurses, Builders, Transport and Public Sector workers who DID NOT cause the finance created recession and who are now paying the price of others greed.

As I wrote in relation to Ireland a year ago;

“So the € 80 Bn Bailout equates to roundly € 55,000 for every productive worker. Add to this annual interest servicing costs of € 4,960 per annum and you get the scale of the problem, Ireland’s public and private debt is simply unsustainable. Most reconstructions, Bankruptcy and liquidations, involve substantial debt reduction, a write off of debt before you begin a fresh start. Ireland is in unrealistic denial about being able to service its Public and private debt making the hard stop of debt default inevitable sooner rather than later.”

http://daithaic.blogspot.com/2011/02/terrible-default-is-born.html

Across Europe electorates are revolting against austerity and cutbacks not just because they are painful and bad in their own right but out a sense of moral outrage at the risk transfer from the well off and greedy to the poor and needy which underpins these IMF driven “austerity packages.” What moral purpose is served by those who were feckless and amoral transferring their risk to Governments and taxpayers? What form of capitalism transfers loss from those who took the risk whilst still rewarding them handsomely?

After the 1990 Crash all the talk was of banning “Arbitrage”, Banks speculating on their own behalf. Then, under the disastrous George W. Bush, America loosened all controls and the Hedge Fund Boom took off with new Masters of the Universe in ego driven Hedge Funds using derivative instruments originally developed to promote liquidity and provide certainty on future commodity and currency prices on a Titanic scale. This was always a zero sum game, for every trade there must be somebody willing to accept the counterpart, there must be winners and losers.  But once again the Hedgies are rising with their expertise based on (I quote from an actual prospectus) “Deep dish nursery book research on our targeted investment sector.” When you find out what that means, please tell me?

Or consider this current guffitis from a Mayfair based hedge fund grandly entitled Trafalgar Capital who hang their brass plate at 49, St. James next to the Ritz.

“Trafalgar Capital Management (UK) LLP is a boutique investment management firm based in London, with affiliate offices in Hong Kong (Trafalgar Capital Management (HK) Limited), Auckland and Sydney. Trafalgar was established in 2001 and currently manages 3 separate Hedge based strategies. Trafalgar Capital Management (UK) LLP is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority in the UK, is authorised by the Irish Financial Regulator to act as Promoter and Investment Manager to Irish authorised collective investment schemes and is a member of the Alternative Investment Management Association; Trafalgar Capital Management (HK) Limited is licensed by the Securities and Futures Commission in Hong Kong.”

“In 2007, Trafalgar Capital established Trafalgar Copley, a joint venture with David Copley. The joint venture is designed to leverage the experience and expertise of both Trafalgar Capital and David Copley to capitalize on global themes that are expected to play out locally in the Australian and New Zealand markets and our belief in the potential for alternative asset management strategies in the region’s Capital Markets.”

Save us from such ego driven Black Magic “experts” who no doubt move seamlessly from their trading desks to poker schools to Casinos – it’s the same difference.

For those who feel left behind by the Euro crisis David McWilliams, Irish economist, gives us our first lesson in punk economics.

It is a totally brilliant exposition of the Banking driven economic crisis by McWilliams who predicted the crash before it happened, unlike the so-important rating agencies, Captains of Industry (sic) and the Gombeen politicians!

Au revoir à l'euro?

It is not a goodtime to be one of the PIGS – Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain. Greece, Ireland and Portugal, the euro region countries that needed 256 billion Euros ($366 billion) in emergency aid to avoid default, may all see their debt loads exceed the size of their economies this year. The only one of the PIGS whose economy has not been bailed out is Spain which is arguably too big to be bailed out in any event.



However the possibility of a second Greek Bail-Out and the increasing likelihood of defaults on Sovereign Debt is threatening not just the continuation of the Eurozone but the entire European Banking System – it is estimated that UK Banks have over €88 Billion exposure in Ireland and French and German Banks over €100 Billion exposure in Greece. Moody's has placed three large French banks on negative review based on their exposure to Greek debt.



In Ireland the political opposition is building up to the IMF Bailout fuelled by resentment that the Developers, Bankers and idiot Politicians who caused the bubble in asset values are getting off scot free. Finance Dublin kicked off The Irish Government Debt Clock which was set at midnight on June 30th 2009, when it was €65.278 billion. It updates the latest figures for the National Debt of Ireland. The clock is re-set periodically, to reflect changes in debt and deficit estimates from the Dept of Finance, the National Treasury Management Agency (NTMA), and independent economists. The clock is set now at €107 Bn, an amount which would be unserviceable even if the boom had continued. For further background on what the debt figures mean click here.

http://www.financedublin.com/debtclock.php


Cheerful Hibernians in between Riverdancing

Greece’s debt, already the biggest in the euro’s history at 143 percent of gross domestic product last year, will jump to almost 158 percent this year and 166 percent in 2012, the European Commission said this week in Brussels. Portuguese debt will surpass total economic output for the first time this year, growing to 101.7 percent of GDP, while Irish debt will reach 112 percent, the forecasts show.



As European Union officials consider boosting aid for Greece a year after its 110 billion-euro bailout, today’s report shows little sign of debt levels becoming more manageable. Soaring borrowing costs have left the three nations shut out of financial markets with investors increasing bets that Greece will become the first euro member to default.



The scale of Greece's problem is simply stated: her national debt will approach 160 per cent of GDP on current trends. Here in the UK we are supposed to be in crisis because that ratio is heading for about 75 per cent.


Les porcs

The Celtic Sage takes no satisfaction in predicting as far back as 2007 that the “One size fits all” Monetary Policy would be unsustainable in the EU’s peripheral economies when I wrote;

“There is widespread and growing disquiet about the consequences of the Euro, especially as the preparations for it already seem directly responsible for rising unemployment in Europe. Some argue cogently that the regional imbalances from monetary union will be a source of conflict not harmony between states. Popular resentment about high unemployment in depressed regions and about the scale of financial transfers to them from richer states could lead to a possibly violent break-up of monetary union.”

http://daithaic.blogspot.com/2007/09/euro-opportunity-or-threat-for-britain.html

Earlier this year I pointed out the sheer impossibility of Ireland servicing its (then smaller) debt and how the election of a new brand of Gombeen Government would not make an iota of difference;




Beware of electorates carrying placards

“So the € 80 Bn Bailout equates to roundly € 55,000 for every productive worker. Add to this annual interest servicing costs of € 4,960 per annum and you get the scale of the problem, Ireland’s public and private debt is simply unsustainable. Most reconstructions, Bankruptcy and liquidations, involve substantial debt reduction, a write off of debt before you begin a fresh start. Ireland is in unrealistic denial about being able to service its Public and private debt making the hard stop of debt default inevitable sooner rather than later.”

http://daithaic.blogspot.com/2011/02/terrible-default-is-born.html

You know, sometimes it would be good to be wrong?

A terrible default is born

Congratulations to Ireland on electing a new puppet Government. The election will not reduce the interest rate on its €80bn bailout by a quarter of a percentage point; it will not diminish the burden of the deficit by so much as an old Irish Punt (the pre-euro currency which rhymed with Bank Manager). It will hang around the necks of the Irish for decades, and rest upon the shoulders of their children and their children’s children. If Gaddafi Adams is the answer then what is the question? The HUGE mistake was to guarantee not just deposits but ALL the liabilities of Irish Banks. The Hedge Fund Bondholders have been in LMAO mode ever since. Alas I had anticipated years ago that a monetary policy designed for Germany and France would make the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain) squeal and so it has come to pass;

http://daithaic.blogspot.com/2007/09/euro-opportunity-or-threat-for-britain.html



Welcome to Dublin!


Fine Gael have been swept to power on the back of a promise to renegotiate the terms of Ireland’s €80bn bailout by the European Union and International Monetary Fund. But Enda Kenny (a leader so impressive his own party tried to give him the heave 8 months ago) like all the other “believe my promises" Irish Politicos has no real power, Ireland’s sovereignty has been removed. The greatest joy is that the Greens have been totally stuffed, losing all their six seats. It's funny how it works that way. They do alright until they get a bit of power – then people realise how absolutely crap they are, and they never get another look in.



As for the Labour Party well I’ve always voted Labour in any country I’ve lived in and I know and like Eamonn Gilmore since we were both involved in the Union of Students in Ireland in the 70’s. However their economic policy has not moved much beyond the “increase taxes to eliminate poverty era.”


We'll always have Riverdance!


Lack of democratic accountability means the same austerity measures will still be imposed, exactly as they are across the euro zone. The impotence of Ireland to influence its own future will lead to bitterness and alienation. This in turn will lead to continuing dishonesty and delusion among a population for whom the “stroke” is a National Religion – this is the only country where a €78 million Euro lottery winner was found to be on benefits and working, claiming “Single Mother’s Allowance” when with a partner and having a holiday home in Turkey and was feted as a “character.” This is a country with the same population as Greater Manchester which still supports 340 Quangos full of self important, self serving popinjays getting in the way of reality. This is a country which when it became wealthy spent its money on buying itself in a huge property bubble.


You can't go wrong with land - sure they are not making any more of it!

But let us consider the nature of the Bailout and the preceding speculative Bubble and the issue of Ireland’s default becomes a “when”, not an “if.” Before the property bubble Ireland had the highest level of home ownership in the EU, at 62% way ahead of Germany, France and the Netherlands. Indeed the nearest is its near neighbour the U.K. where the “love of property” has really really been a “love of inflation.” So where does this leave property values in the short term as we enter a low inflation or possibly deflationary scenario? In the UK when residential property crashed in 1990 the average house price was 11 times average earnings. When reality hit Ireland in 2007 the average house price was an astounding 23 times average earnings. There are estimated to be 230,000 unsold new homes of which 110,000 are “holiday” homes. Add to the zombie estates, the zombie hotels built for tax breaks and without customers and the zombie developments then there are so many walking dead in the Irish property world that nobody can reliably predict future asset values or ascertain the reality of security behind current borrowings.



The Irish Independent reports today that there are 44,508 mortgages more than 3 months in arrears totalling €8.6 Bn, making each non-performing mortgage worth around € 193,000. Take the € 80 Bn Bailout Ireland has received. Ireland has a labour force of 2.2 million of which around 430,000 are currently claiming unemployment benefit of some sort. Abstract also the estimated 300,000 Public Sector workers this leaves a generous 1,470,000 workers (including those working in zombie hotels) in the wealth producing sectors of the economy. So the € 80 Bn Bailout equates to roundly € 55,000 for every productive worker. Add to this annual interest servicing costs of € 4,960 per annum and you get the scale of the problem, Ireland’s public and private debt is simply unsustainable. Most reconstructions, Bankruptcy and liquidations, involve substantial debt reduction, a write off of debt before you begin a fresh start. Ireland is in unrealistic denial about being able to service its Public and private debt making the hard stop of debt default inevitable sooner rather than later.


Fecked!

Of course the election is not all bad news - but at least we don't have to look at Cowen any more ... until he turns up again with a nice little earner, courtesy of the "colleagues". The inevitable default in the next two years will alienate a whole generation. The puppets may have changed but the same puppet master is still pulling the strings. Congratulations to Jean Claude Trichet of the European Central Bank on his election win. IMF/ECB still rules! Simples!



For an insight into the high quality leadership which has brought Ireland to such a happy place see;

Bertie Ahern and poverty in Ireland;

http://daithaic.blogspot.com/2007/12/bertie-ahern-and-poverty-in-ireland.html

The Naked Taoiseach

http://daithaic.blogspot.com/2009/03/naked-taoiseach.html

It’s not a fair exchange rate; it’s a rip off M & S rate!

Marks and Spencer’s is the ubiquitous UK High Street chain, commonly known as M & S, which has been struggling of late but trades heavily on being an ethical business which consumers can trust and identify with, as it says itself it represents; “Quality, Value, Service, Innovation and Trust which have stood the business in good stead for 125 years.” Indeed its corporate tag-line is “YOUR M &S.”

So just how trustworthy is this trusted retailer? Well lately it has changed the terms of trade with its customers. It used to allow you return products within 90 days, with no great fanfare it has changed this to 35 days and returns must now be in a “saleable condition.” This is now interpreted differently than before so if for instance you wear a suit which you decide is too big / small, they won’t let you return it despite many stores not having fitting rooms (they close them during sale periods) or indeed or indeed enough staff to help you due to cutbacks. They have also stopped in-store ordering and this can now only be done over the internet, neatly excluding their loyalest older customers.

But they also trumpet M & S Money and their competitive commission free exchange rates on foreign currency. However there is one category of customer they don’t want to be competitive with, UK customers who receive Euro gift cards from abroad. So I (gratefully) receive a 50 Euro gift card at Xmas and I think “Great, the Euro is almost 1-to-1 on the exchange rate and M & S have the conversion plugged into their UK tills so no problem!”


Thank you for buying a Euro gift card - We will now rip you off; there is no Plan B

Imagine then my astonishment in trying to use my 50 Euro card on 28th December 2009 and finding out they were giving a conversion rate of 1.33 making it worth paltry £37.59 sterling. If they gave you the same rate of 1.0939 their Bureau de Change’s were offering on the same day it would be worth £45.71 or an amazing 22% more. Consider the double-whammy of arrogance on this one as somebody has paid them that 50 Euro some time in advance so they have had that money interest free – hence this “trusted retailer” feels free to rip off Euro gift card holders by offering them a totally uncompetitive exchange rate that M & S Money would never offer as they would have no business.

I wish I could tell you what this trusted retailer thinks in its 125th anniversary year but their “Customer Services” on 0845 609 0200 has not kept its promise to get back to me. I suspect this con on mugging Euro gift card customers along with Sir. Stuart Rose and Marks & Spencer’s are after 125 years a bit past their sell-by-date!